Earthquakes: Prediction Proving Elusive

The difficulties associated with earthquake prediction are reviewed. The once-promising dilatancy theory has been displaced by monitoring of small earthquakes and earthquake swarms. While the ability to observe possible precursors has increased considerably, no reliable precursor has been found; without a long, detailed monitoring record, it is difficult to tell if some anomalous activity foretells a major earthquake. The existence of slow earthquakes would greatly complicate long-term prediction. (RWR)