Modified Von Mises Stress a Robust Predictor of the Spatial Distribution of Ice Slab Crevasse Fields in Greenland

Fractures in ice slabs modulate the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet by routing meltwater into the englacial system. There, it may be stored locally, reducing runoff and increasing surface mass balance, or drain into the subglacial system and influence ice sliding velocities. However, it is unclear how common ice slab fractures are or how their frequency varies across the ice sheet because these crevasses are too narrow to directly observe with most remote sensing systems. Here, we use observations of fractures from half‐meter resolution imagery and surface stresses calculated from remotely sensed ice velocity fields to estimate the tensile strength of ice slabs, and then predict fracture initiation zones from the von Mises stress. Our regionally cross‐validated model achieves a model‐data agreement score of 0.83 0.03 (out of 1), demonstrating that the von Mises stress is a robust operational predictor of the spatial extent of crevasse fields on Greenland's ice slabs. We predict that 53% of the total ice slab area contains at least one crevasse within 250 m, with the most pervasive crevasse fields in marine‐terminating sectors of the ice sheet. Our results suggest that models that treat ice slabs as impermeable likely overestimate high‐elevation surface runoff. Additionally, the availability of meltwater and englacial storage space, rather than fracture propensity, may set the elevation limit for the development of surface‐to‐bed drainage connections in many regions of the ice sheet.