When Predictions Fail: The Case of Unexpected Pathways Toward High School Dropout

This study examines childhood variables that tend to deflect life‐course trajectories away from finishing high school. We examined unexpectedly graduating in the presence of three empirical risk factors (having a mother that did not finish high school, being from a single‐parent family in early childhood, and having repeated a grade in primary school) and unexpectedly not graduating in the absence these same factors (low risk). The comparison groups comprised individuals who expectedly did not graduate (first case) and expectedly graduated (second case). We found that having experienced all three factors practically guaranteed not finishing high school, thus defining a crystal clear target group for policy. Without screening, intervention, and follow‐up, individuals facing such cumulative risk are most unlikely to graduate. We also found a group of males and females that did not finish high school despite not having these three risk factors. These missed estimates become nontrivial once they are translated into a population‐level statistic of lost human capital investments. Specific family and individual factors helped explain the unexpected life course toward not finishing high school, especially for low‐risk males and females. Our results suggest policies that support childhood screening for attention‐related difficulties and helping parents better understand supervision during adolescence .