The Revised Theory of Surge and Decline

The status of Angus Campbell's theory of surge and decline is a matter of considerable controversy. While analysis of the composition and voting behavior of presidential and midterm electorates fails to support the theory, analysis of aggregate congressional election results yields supporting evidence. This research seeks to reconcile these findings by proposing and examining a revised version of the surge and decline theory. The analysis finds that in presidential elections there is a surge in turnout among partisans of the advantaged party and a surge in support for the advantaged party among independent voters. Both surges are proportional to the magnitude of short-term forces as measured by the partisan division of the presidential vote. In midterm elections, both the one-sided partisan turnout surge and the independent vote surge for the advantaged party recede.