Surge and Decline in Congressional Elections

and theory as presented in Campbell's article. The second section consists of a reanalysis of survey data over the last thirty years to see whether there is any support for some basic propositions found in the theory. Finding support for only part of Campbell's theory, the paper will explore in the final section the utility of two other theories in filling the gaps left unexplained in Campbell's original formulation of the surge and decline theory. THE SURGE AND DECLINE THEORY SET FORTH