Economic Conditions, Presidential Popularity, and Voting Behavior in Midterm Congressional Elections

Using data gathered in the CPS 1974, 1978, and 1982 American National Election Studies, this paper examines the effects of economic conditions and presidential popularity on voting in midterm congressional elections. The effect of presidential evaluations varied depending on the salience of national issues in the election campaign: the strongest effect was found in 1982 and the weakest effect in 1978. In both 1974 and 1982 the effect of presidential evaluations was much greater in House races involving an incumbent of the president's party than in other types of contests. Republican losses in the 1974 and 1982 midterm elections appear to be largely attributable to the unpopularity of the Republican incumbent presidents in those elections.