Presidential Popularity and Midterm Voting at Different Electoral Levels

This paper examines the relationship between evaluations of presidential performance and voter decisions at different electoral levels. Drawing upon survey data from the 1970 midterm elections, we found that evaluations of Mr. Nixon had little impact upon the voting decisions of those who identified with one or the other of the major parties. However, among independent voters, the relationship was quite strong. Independents who entertained favorable images of Mr. Nixon were much more likely to vote for Republican candidates than were those who were generally unfavorable toward the president. In addition, this relationship was found at all electoral levels. Thus, the impact of presidential popularity upon midterm elections is not restricted to contests for the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, but also extends to state races for governor, as well as to contests for lower level state and local offices. Some consequences of these findings are then considered.