The “Plucking Model” of Business Fluctuations Revisited

Some twenty‐five years ago, I suggested a model of business fluctuations that stresses occasional events producing contractions and subsequent revivals rather than a self‐generating cyclical process. Evidence for the past quarter century, like evidence presented in my earlier paper for a longer period, supports the view that the model is a useful way to interpret business fluctuations and has sufficiently important implications to justify further empirical work for both the United States and other countries.