The lowest fertility rates in the world? Evidence from the 2015 Chinese 1% sample census

As the world’s largest population, the total fertility rate (TFR) of China is of global significance. Furthermore, the introduction of recent reforms designed to lessen restrictions on childbearing have received wide attention. As well as outlining the fertility rate in China as derived from the 2015 1% sample census, in this short paper we seek to explore the impact of the 2013 reforms to fertility policy which allowed millions of eligible couples to bear a second child. We performed standard demographic analysis on the 2015 1% sample census to calculate both TFR and parity-specific fertility rates for both the total population and specific sub-groups. The overall national TFR from the census was calculated to be 1.047 (down from 1.188 in 2010). TFR in urban areas was 0.914 compared to 1.265 in rural areas. TFR among migrant women was 0.896 compared to 1.115 for non-migrants. While a modest increase in second-births can be identified, a decline in first birth rates offsets it. Even allowing for a generous margin of error, China’s fertility rates appear to be extremely low and declining further. The impact of the recent reforms appears muted, especially in the face of declining first birth rates. The TFRs as calculated from the mini-census would be the lowest national rates in the world. Further research is required to triangulate these findings from other sources. The impact of the two-child policy may be muted.