Birth Rate in the Irkutsk Region and in Russia: Index Analysis

One of the main problems of the Russian Federation and the Irkutsk region nowadays is demographic. The population is decreasing due to natural and migratory population decline. An increase in the birth rate of the population can lead to a change in the situation. The article emphasizes the contribution of natural growth to the total population growth of the Irkutsk region since the beginning of the third millennium; the dynamics of the birth rate for the same period is analyzed. A comparative analysis of the dynamics of the birth rate in the Russian Federation and the Irkutsk region for the period from 2000 to 2020 is carried out. The annual growth rates of the birth rate and the average dynamics highlighted some discrepancies of the birth rate trend in the Irkutsk region. To assess the impact of factors on the dynamics of the birth rate, an index model based on the indicators of the Russian Federation is suggested. The considered factors are the fertility rate (fecundity) of women, the structural indicators of the number of women and the average population.