Regionalism, nationalism and Realpolitik in central Asia

THEMES OF DISINTEGRATION AND INTEGRATION recently have assumed new prominence in world politics. These issues are epitomised in the emerging relationships within and among the states of the former Soviet Union. During 1990-92 the pendulum swung in the direction of the centrifugal forces of nationalism, contributing to the collapse of the Soviet empire. Despite the fact that these forces have not completely receded, there is recognition that complete disintegration must be avoided lest more imbroglios result. Although the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was established to foster cooperation among post-Soviet states, in many circles it has limited credibility since it is perceived as Russian-dominated and an interlude to a return to empire. For this reason, various non-Russian republics have begun to look towards each other in attempts to resolve common dilemmas as well as move away from the orbit of Moscow. This article will investigate the forces pushing the new Central Asian statesKazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan-towards cooperation and possible integration and those that limit the chances for the emergence of a new 'Turkestan'. All of these states face a legion of daunting problems that seriously threaten their future. These include ethnic turmoil (real or potential), the need to restructure and moderise the economy, state-building from scratch, and severe environmental and public health problems. In addition, their security environment is distinctly questionable, owing in large part to uncertainty over the future policies of their northern neighbour. Alone, each of these states is weak, has an uncertain future and is ripe for exploitation by rapacious neighbours. Together, either in a more formal union or through multilateral cooperation, they could solve many of their common problems and create a more stable and secure environment. Will this be possible? Despite the numerous imperatives that make sustained cooperation an attractive option, this article will argue that multilateral cooperation among Central Asian states, let alone integration, will remain an elusive goal, at least for the foreseeable future. This can be partially explained by Realpolitik: Russia's power in the region and interest in preventing Central Asian unity. However, domestic