Developmental trajectories and predictive factors of foreign language classroom anxiety among university students: A latent growth mixture model approach

Foreign Language Classroom Anxiety (FLCA) is a common emotional barrier in second language learning, yet its developmental course is not well understood. This study aimed to identify longitudinal trajectories of FLCA and their predictors among university students. A three-wave survey was conducted with 610 undergraduates over one year, and latent growth mixture modeling was used to capture heterogeneous patterns. Multinomial logistic regression examined demographic and psychosocial predictors of trajectory membership. Of the 610 participants, 500 completed all assessments. A three-class model provided the best fit: a High-Level Decreasing group (10.0%), a Low-Level Increasing group (9.4%), and a High-Level Stable group (80.6%). Female gender, junior grade, higher self-efficacy, and stronger social support predicted the High-Level Decreasing trajectory, whereas intact family structure increased the likelihood of the Low-Level Increasing trajectory and self-efficacy reduced this risk. These findings indicate that FLCA develops along divergent pathways shaped by both individual and social resources. Early recognition of these trajectories and targeted support may help students better manage excessive and persistent anxiety, promote adaptive emotional adjustment, and facilitate language learning. • Latent growth mixture modeling identified heterogeneous FLCA trajectories beyond cross-sectional evidence. • Three pathways emerged: high-decreasing, low-increasing, and high-stable FLCA trajectories. • Gender, grade, self-efficacy, social support, and family structure predicted trajectory membership.