Operator identification in charged lepton-flavor violation: Global EFT analysis with RG evolution, polarization observables, and Bayesian model discrimination at future colliders

Charged lepton-flavor violation is a null-test frontier of the Standard Model and a direct probe of physics beyond it. We present a global effective field theory (EFT) analysis across FCC-ee, ILC, CLIC, HL-LHC, HE-LHC, and muon colliders at 3 and 10 TeV, with operator identification as the primary target rather than exclusion reach alone. The analysis combines low-energy constraints, collider differential observables, and Dalitz-level μ → 3 e information in a common profile-likelihood framework. Key hadron-collider and muon-collider signal/background samples are generated at the event level and propagated through Delphes detector simulation, while clean e + e − benchmark channels are modeled with a parametric response calibrated to published detector-performance benchmarks. We include one-loop renormalization group (RG) running and operator mixing between UV matching and measurement scales, finding 10–30% shifts in selected operator-correlation entries when comparing tree-level and RG-evolved coefficient mappings at multi-TeV matching scales. Polarization asymmetries are used to separate c H ℓ and c H e directions, and UV discrimination is quantified with Bayes factors for benchmark leptoquark and heavy-neutral-lepton hypotheses. The full code chain for event generation, detector response, inference, and figure reproduction is provided.