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February 8, 2025Open Access

Global cardiovascular risk scores differentiate 10-year CVD risk with 63-86% accuracy.

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Why the study?

Suitability and accuracy of cardiovascular 10-year risk scoring systems for medium- to low-resource countries, including Asian populations, remains challenging because most tools were developed from non-Asian cohorts.

What are the consolidated range values of internal and external validity and methodological perspectives of globally used CVD 10-year risk scores?

Comparison

Five global CVD 10-year risk prediction tools (FRS, WHO CVD, QRISK, ASCVD, SCORE) and updated versions (11 altogether)

Design

Rapid systematic review

Key result

Globally used cardiovascular risk scoring algorithms can accurately differentiate 10-year CVD risk by 63-86% considering both internal and external validity.

Authors

CAChiranjivi AdhikariKSKomal ShahASAakansha Shukla

Discussion

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Overview

Supports use of global CVD risk scores for stratification now; confirms overall validity while extending need for population-specific updates.

Study Design

Type

Systematic Review

Structured PICO

What are the consolidated range values of internal and external validity and methodological perspectives of globally used CVD 10-year risk scores?

P
Population
Populations assessed for primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention, with a focus on the suitability of risk scoring systems for medium to low resource countries, including Asian cohorts.
I
Intervention
11 globally used cardiovascular disease (CVD) 10-year risk prediction tools (Framingham Risk Score [FRS], WHO CVD, QRISK, ASCVD, SCORE, and their updated versions published during 1970-2023)
O
Outcome
Internal and external validity and calibration (accuracy, C-statistics) of CVD 10-year risk scores

Globally used CVD risk scoring algorithms demonstrate fair to excellent validity (63-86% accuracy), but require updating and validation to improve performance and address gene-environment interactions, particularly for specific populations like Asians and those in low-to-middle-income countries.

Limitations

  • Majority of the scoring systems are developed from non-Asian cohorts, challenging their suitability for Asian populations.
  • Algorithms are liable to change due to gene-environment interactions and lifestyle changes, requiring continuous updates.
  • Implementational, methodological, technological, and cost-related issues need to be addressed for country-specific algorithms.

Cite This Study

Adhikari et al. (2025) conducted a systematic review in Cardiovascular disease risk prediction. Cardiovascular 10-yr Risk Prediction Scores was evaluated on Accuracy (C-statistics) of CVD 10-yr risk prediction. Globally used cardiovascular risk scoring algorithms can accurately differentiate 10-year CVD risk by 63-86% considering both internal and external validity.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a0ede5f9df4132b62f9c682https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.02.07.25321756
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