Beyond Cyber-Doom: Assessing the Limits of Hypothetical Scenarios in the Framing of Cyber-Threats

ABSTRACT Cybersecurity proponents often rely on cyber-doom scenarios as a key tactic for calling attention to prospective cyberthreats. This article critically examines cyber-doom scenarios by placing them in a larger historical context, assessing how realistic they are, and drawing out the policy implications of relying on such tales. It draws from relevant research in the history of technology, military history, and disaster sociology to examine some of the key assertions and assumptions of cyber-doom scenarios. The article argues that cyber-doom scenarios are the latest manifestation of fears about “technology-out-of-control” in Western societies, that they are unrealistic, and that they encourage the adoption of counterproductive, even dangerous policies. The article concludes by offering alternative principles for the formulation of cybersecurity policy.