Optimization in organic synthesis. An approach to obtaining kinetic information by sequential response surface modelling. Outline of the principles

A method is presented by which it is possible to estimate the initial rate of chemical reactions when the experimental conditions are varied according to a response surface design. The method is intended as a complementary method for analysing data obtained from experiments in synthetic chemistry when the objective is to optimize the yield of the reaction. Data obtained by simulations have been used to develop the method. From the simulated reactions it is shown that sequential analysis of the chemical yield of the reaction makes it possible to estimate models which describe how the parameters of the response surface of the yield vary over time. The derivatives of these time functions of the response surface parameters can be used to define a rate function which describes how the variations in the experimental conditions influence the rate of the reaction. It is shown how such rate functions can be used to afford reasonable estimates of the initial rates of the reaction. The initial reaction rates thus estimated can be used to determine the kinetic order of the reactants and also to provide estimates of the activation energy of the reaction. A thorough discussion of how canonical analysis of the rate function may assist in the elucidation of reaction mechanisms is given.