How Does Fiscal Policy Affect Investment? Evidence from a Large Panel

We assess the relevance of fiscal components for private and public investment using data for a large panel of 95 countries for the period 1970–2008. Accounting for the usual econometric pitfalls, our results suggest a negative effect of government expenditure and of government consumption spending on private investment. Interest payments and subsidies have a negative effect on both types of investment (particularly in emerging economies). Social security spending has a negative effect on private investment for the full and OECD samples, whereas government health spending has a positive and significant impact on private investment. Moreover, stronger fiscal numerical rules decrease public investment.