Landmine clearance and economic development: Evidence from multispectral satellite imagery, nighttime lights, and conflict events in Afghanistan

The widespread prevalence of unexploded landmines in many countries leads to thousands of deaths and injuries annually. In addition, landmines may block transport corridors–restricting the flow of goods and people–and prevent the productive use of contaminated land. We study the clearance of more than 15,000 hazardous areas in Afghanistan over the past several decades, obtaining precise geographic boundaries for these areas. We use multispectral Landsat-series imagery to develop measures of land use and crop productivity, allowing us to detect effects even in rural areas, where impacts have been more difficult to observe in prior papers relying on nighttime lights as proxies of economic activity. We conduct event study estimations of the impacts of clearance, leveraging the staggered roll-out of this clearance while avoiding forbidden comparisons. The clearance of hazardous areas leads to changes in land use and agricultural productivity, as well as broader increases in economic activity reflected in nighttime lights. We also find reductions in conflict risks due to the clearance of hazardous areas. Landmine action efforts appear to have substantial economic effects even in areas with ongoing conflict risks. • Widespread prevalence of unexploded landmines in many countries leads to thousands of deaths and injuries annually, blocks transport corridors, and prevents productive use of contaminated land. • Study the clearance of more than 15,000 hazardous areas in Afghanistan over the past several decades, leveraging staggered roll-out to conduct event study designs. • Use multispectral Landsat-series imagery to develop measures of land use and crop productivity, detecting effects even in rural areas, where impacts previously more difficult to observe. • Clearance of hazardous areas leads to economic improvements in urban areas with better market access, as well as land use changes and crop productivity improvements in rural areas. • Clearance also leads to reductions in nearby conflict risks, likely because clearance of agricultural land raises opportunity costs of engaging in conflict.