Development of Estimation Method for Future Population by Eup-Myeon-Dong Unit

The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for predicting population at the regional units of eup, myeon, and dong, which are smaller than si and gun. For this, its applicability is reviwed in Suwon city, population of which in 2035 is predicted with age groups of five-year interval. Results of this study are as follows: First, we developed a housing-population model for predicting population by age group using the number of housing by area. Second, we presented a methodology for allocating the population of si or gun derived from the Urban or Gun Master Plan to eup, myeon, and dong. Third, we suggested a method for estimating social population changes at eup, myeon, and dong caused by development projects. Fourth, we suggested a method for estimating population by age group in eup, myeon, and dong, and confirmed its applicability in Suwon. This study is meaningful in the following aspects. First, we suggested a methodology for predicting the population of small areas using data readily available from most local governments. Second, results of this study can be used for the estimation of population in living zones, which has recently attracted attention in the area of urban planning.