Forecasting Based On a SARIMA Model of Urban Malaria for Kolkata

In India Urban Malaria is considered to be the one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases taking lives of many people including children. Kolkata is one of the Metropolitan cities in where the seasonal effect of malaria is very marked. In the present work attempts have been made to study temporal variation of urban malaria incidences using time series model on the basis of a large population survey conducted by the Kolkata Municipal Corporation. It is found that the proposed time series (SARIMA) model can be used very successfully for prediction purposes.