The Strategic Logic of Covert Regime Change: US-Backed Regime Change Campaigns during the Cold War

Covert regime change is a common instrument of statecraft states use to promote their national security interests abroad. This study employs an original dataset of all US-backed covert regime change attempts during the Cold War. It shows that the United States attempted far more regime changes than is commonly known because Washington intervened covertly—as opposed to overtly—ten times more frequently during these missions: sixty-four covert regime change attempts versus six overt. Building upon extensive archival research, the article then theorizes why the United States launched its Cold War regime changes, which types of international disputes are most likely to spark an intervention, and why American policymakers overwhelmingly preferred to intervene covertly during their regime-change operations. The results challenge existing theories of regime change and offer timely new insights into US foreign policy decision making.