Simulating simple user behavior for system effectiveness evaluation

Information retrieval effectiveness evaluation typically takes one of two forms: batch experiments based on static test collections, or lab studies measuring actual users interacting with a system. Test collection experiments are sometimes viewed as introducing too many simplifying assumptions to accurately predict the usefulness of a system to its users. As a result, there is great interest in creating test collections and measures that better model user behavior. One line of research involves developing measures that include a parameterized user model; choosing a parameter value simulates a particular type of user. We propose that these measures offer an opportunity to more accurately simulate the variance due to user behavior, and thus to analyze system effectiveness to a simulated user population. We introduce a Bayesian procedure for producing sampling distributions from click data, and show how to use statistical tools to quantify the effects of variance due to parameter selection.