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This study critically reviews models of near-surface permafrost degradation and suggests alternatives.

Near‐surface permafrost degradation: How severe during the 21st century?

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Review evaluates permafrost degradation models, revealing survival potential in Arctic regions.

This study critically reviews models of near-surface permafrost degradation and suggests alternatives.
Reviewed previously presented models on near-surface permafrost degradation.
Introduced an alternative model with a comprehensive mathematical formulation of physical processes.
Analyzed paleoclimatic data to assess future methane release scenarios.
Alternative model predicts permafrost will largely remain in areas north of 70°N during the 21st century.
Permafrost is expected to survive at depths in most regions between 60° to 70°N.
Concerns about massive methane release from degrading permafrost are questioned based on findings.

G. Delisle (2007) studied this question.

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