Between Enforcement and Precarity: Externalization and Migrant Deaths at Sea

Much scholarship on border enforcement and loss of life asserts the relationship between enforcement and precarity. Little research attempts to correlate the two: enforcement operations and loss of life. In this article, we statistically analyse the relationship between increased border enforcement operations at sea and migrant losses of life around the EU between 2006 and 2015, and find them to be significantly and positively correlated. We also find evidence that increased enforcement leads to rerouting of migrant journeys to ‘weak spots’ in relation to borders. These findings bring empirical support to the commonly‐asserted claim by social scientists that externalization creates greater loss of life. We argue that, although discourse about interception and externalization has shifted to humanitarian rescue narratives, offshore enforcement by any other name continues to be highly correlated with migrant deaths. We then construct two datasets documenting migrant boats lost at sea and state interdiction operations since 1980. These data serve as the basis of our statistical analysis.