Anthropogenic Management Dominates the Spatial Pattern of Soil Organic Carbon in Saline Cotton Fields of Xinjiang: A Modeling Investigation Based on the Modified Process-Based Model

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Salinity is a key abiotic stress limiting crop growth. Accurate quantification of carbon budgets and their environmental responses is critical for sustainable cotton production, yet regional-scale assessments remain scarce. To clarify the evolutionary patterns and driving mechanisms of soil organic carbon (SOC) in saline cotton fields of arid Central Asia, this study focused on Xinjiang and modified the RothC model by integrating salinity adjustment factors and vegetation carbon decomposition indices, simulating SOC dynamics (1980–2022) with multi-source data. Results showed the improved model achieved high accuracy in capturing SOC dynamics in salinized cotton fields. Spatially, SOC exhibited high levels south of the Tianshan Mountains and low levels in southwestern Xinjiang; temporally, it showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, though both high- and low-value zones displayed localized declines. Geodetector analysis revealed fertilizer application as the primary driver of SOC spatial variation, followed by straw return, precipitation, and temperature, with most factors showing synergistic enhancement effects. Human management (fertilization and straw return) is the core regulator of SOC, and its synergy with natural factors shapes SOC spatiotemporal patterns. The salinization-adapted RothC model provides a novel framework for arid cotton field SOC simulation, offering scientific support for carbon pool optimization and sustainable agriculture in arid regions.