Explaining the decline of Mediterranean meat sheep farming through system dynamics modelling

Farming systems are complex social-ecological systems in which social, economic, and ecological factors interact shaping their performance and evolution. Among different farming systems in Europe, sheep farming has experienced a marked and sustained decline over the past decades. This paper uses a system dynamics model to investigate the decline of sheep farming systems in Mediterranean areas and to quantify the influence of different drivers on their dynamics. The model SHEEPSES was developed to simulate the meat sheep farming system in Aragon (Spain) from 2000 to 2022. It incorporates the social, economic and environmental components that determine its functioning. First, we simulated the historical trends in the number of ewes, farms and net income per farmer. Second, we performed experimental simulations to understand what would have had happened if the effect of some drivers were removed. Social and economic drivers drove the decline in the number of farms and sheep. This was caused by a lack of generational renewal, which was a consequence of poor quality of life and low attractiveness of rural areas. The system would have collapsed without the subsidies of the Common Agricultural Policy. However, our results suggest that policies have proven insufficient to reverse the declining trend in sheep and farm numbers. Policies focused on farmers quality of life, attractiveness of rural areas and decreasing dependence on subsidies would be needed to improve the system resilience in the long term. SHEEPSES was helpful to understand past dynamics and could be a tool to support policy design aiming at slowing the decline of the system. • The decline of sheep farming (2000−2022) is simulated using a dynamic model. • The system modelled includes social, economic and environmental drivers. • Social and economic drivers drove the decline in the number of sheep and farms. • Subsidies prevented the system from collapse but did not reverse its decline. • Improving farmers quality of life and attractiveness of rural areas is key.