Climate‐Driven Shifts in the Potential Distribution of Quarantine Forest Pathogens in Europe: Insights From Species Distribution Modelling

Climate change is increasingly recognised as a major driver of shifts in the geographic ranges of forest pathogens, with profound implications for forest health and management. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation regimes and longer growing seasons can facilitate pathogen establishment, survival and spread, particularly in regions previously constrained by climate. In this study, we assessed the current and future climatic suitability of four forest pathogens of phytosanitary concern— Davidsoniella virescens , Bretziella fagacearum , Litylenchus crenatae and Stegophora ulmea— with a specific focus on Europe. Using species distribution models (MaxEnt) calibrated with confirmed occurrence records and bioclimatic variables, we projected potential distribution patterns under baseline conditions and future climate scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). Our results indicate a pronounced northward and eastward expansion of climatically suitable areas for D. virescens and B. fagacearum , particularly under high‐emission scenarios, suggesting an increased risk of climatic suitability conducive to establishment in large parts of Europe. In contrast, L. crenatae exhibited relatively limited range shifts, while S. ulmea showed moderate expansion coupled with localised contractions. These species‐specific responses highlight the importance of biological traits, dispersal strategies and ecological constraints in mediating climate‐driven range dynamics. Overall, our findings underscore the growing phytosanitary risks posed by climate change and demonstrate the value of integrating species distribution modelling into early‐warning systems and adaptive forest management strategies aimed at mitigating future pathogen impacts in European forests.