Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities

Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities. Regional Studies. Using Bayesian posterior model probabilities and data pertaining to 3659 Brazilian minimum comparable areas (MCAs) over the period 1970–2010, two theoretical settings of population growth dynamics resulting in two spatial econometric specifications in combination with a wide range of potential neighbourhood matrices are tested against each other. The best performing combination counts five determinants producing significant long-term spatial spillover effects. Ignoring these spillovers, as many previous population growth studies have done, is shown to underestimate their impact and thus the effectiveness of policy measures acting on these determinants.