Do Phylogenetic Methods Produce Trees With Biased Shapes?

We examine whether phylogenetic methods provide biased estimates of tree shape with respect to the random branching model. We investigate the performance of five commonly used phylogenetic methods using computer simulation: (1) maximum parsimony; (2) neighbor joining; (3) UPGMA with an outgroup taxon; (4) UPGMA without an outgroup taxon; and (5) maximum likelihood. All methods provide estimates of tree shape that are, on average, more asymmetrical than the true tree, especially when rates of evolution are high. We suggest a simple explanation for the bias and propose a modified test of tree shape that corrects for it.