Aircraft failure rate forecasting method based on Holt-Winters seasonal model

A large number of aviation equipment maintenance data exhibit seasonal behavior, such as aircraft failure rate. Consequently, seasonal forecasting problems are of considerable importance in aviation maintenance support. Aircraft failure rate is an important parameter of aviation equipment RMS (Reliability-Maintainability-Supportability). It is indispensable to scientifically predict the aircraft failure rate and to make scientific decisions on aviation maintenance to improve maintenance support capability. This paper concentrates on the analysis of seasonal time series data using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing methods. Two models discussed here are the multiplicative seasonal model and the additive seasonal model. Then the mathematic model and calculation equation are given. The application of Holt-Winters seasonal model in forecasting the aircraft failure rate is analyzed by examples. And the forecasting results were analyzed and compared. At last, the results show that the Holt-Winters seasonal model is feasible and effective for the prediction of aircraft failure rate.