Do increases in petroleum product prices put the incumbent party at risk in US presidential elections?

This article investigates the impact of petroleum product prices on recent United States’ presidential elections by modelling the probability of the incumbent presidential party losing a state (under the United States’ electoral college system) it had carried the previous presidential election. The main finding is that the probability of the incumbent party losing a state previously carried increases with petroleum product prices but only in those states that have primarily energy consuming economies. We also find that increases in the number of international conflicts, increases in real state per-capita income growth, and increases in state per capita grants-in-aid all reduce the likelihood of losing previously carried states while higher taxation growth increases this likelihood.