The Impact of the Exchange Rate Regime on Exports: Evidence from the European Monetary System

We employ the econometric techniques of multivariate cointegration and errorcorrection models to investigate the impact of the creation of the European Monetary System (EMS) on the volume of intra-European Union (EU) exports for eight EU countries. We find that for Ireland the EMS boosted the volume of intra-EU exports, whereas for Belgium, Denmark, and Germany, the EMS led to a decline in intra-EU exports. In the rest of the countries, there has not been a significant effect. Another important result is that, more often than not, the shortrun impact of exchange rate volatility on the volume of intra-EU exports is insignificant.