IntroductionThe future burden of cancer can be quantify from two different perspectives: the number of new cancer cases and age-standardized rates.GoalMaking prognosis of number of cancer cases in Poland in 2019.MethodologyThese predictions of number of cancer cases in 2019 has been based on the historical trends of cancer incidence in Poland in 2000–2009 and the demographical prognosis made by Central Statistical Office using the method of Hakulinen and Dyba.ResultsThere will be 76 629 new cancer cases in men and 75 815 cases in women in 2019. Compare to the period 2005–2009 the number of cancer cases in Poland will increase by 25.1% for men and by 26.1% for women. In 2019 the increase in number of colorectal cancer cases for both sexes, lung, breast and endometrial cancer for women and prostate cancer for men will be observed. For stomach cancer for both sexes, cervical cancer in women and lung cancer in men the predicted number of cases will decrease.ConclusionsThe predicted increase in cancer incidence for Poland in 2019 will be the results of: the demographical changes, the influence of the cancer risk factors and the participation in the screening programs.
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Wojtyś et al. (2012) studied this question.
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