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Review reveals limited predictive power of elicited uncertainty preferences across finance and insurance domains, highlighting the need for improved behavioral measurement frameworks.
We often want to predict individual behavior under uncertainty in relevant decision-making settings based on the elicitation of individual uncertainty attitudes. This paper surveys different approaches to measure uncertainty preferences and studies that correlate measured preferences with decision-making behavior in different domains such as finance or insurance. We argue that the predictive power of elicited preferences in many studies is limited and suggest several potential ways forward for future research.
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Martin G. Kocher (2025) studied this question.
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