An earlier draft of this paper was presented atthe 20thAnnual Meeting of the Western Academy of Management, Portland, Oregon, in April 1979. The project was supported in part by funds provided by the Division of Research, University of Oregon and by the Office of Naval Research N0014-76-C-0164. In preparing the paper, we benefited from informal meetings with Paul Slovic, Baruch Fischhoff, Randy Hansen, and Stewart Bither. We are grateful to Richard Mowday and Lynda Paule who provided criticisms of earlier drafts. Finally, we acknowledge guidance and comments made by Karl Weick and two anonymous ASQ reviewers.
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Ungson et al. (1981) studied this question.
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