Key result
Longer baseline P-wave duration by ~6 ms is linked to newly diagnosed AF after cryptogenic stroke.
Why the study?
Cryptogenic stroke survivors face a higher risk for newly diagnosed AF, and subtle ECG markers like baseline P-wave duration and dispersion may potentially serve as early indicators.
Meta-Analysis (n=1,508)
Yes
Prolonged baseline P-wave duration may serve as a non-invasive electrophysiological marker to help predict the development of newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in cryptogenic stroke survivors.
May aid atrial fibrillation risk stratification after cryptogenic stroke; extends observational evidence but leaves open need for prospective validation.
Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia and a major cause of ischemic stroke recurrence. Cryptogenic stroke (CS) survivors face a higher risk for newly diagnosed AF (NDAF), with subtle ECG markers—prolonged P‐wave duration (PWDur) and increased P‐wave dispersion (PWDis)—potentially serving as early indicators. We aimed to quantify baseline PWDur and PWDis differences between CS survivors with NDAF and those in sinus rhythm. Methods Following PRISMA guidelines, we systematically searched nine databases through January 2025 for observational studies assessing baseline P‐wave indices in adult CS patients in sinus rhythm. Data extraction and risk of bias assessment using the ROBINS‐E tool were performed independently. Pooled mean differences (MD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using a random‐effects inverse‐variance model. Subgroup/sensitivity analyses were conducted by age groups, male proportion, region, follow‐up duration, percentage of comorbidities, AF definition and detection methods, and ECG parameter. Heterogeneity was assessed using Cochran's Q , τ 2 , and I 2 and interpreted using Cochrane thresholds; certainty was appraised with GRADE. Results Ten studies, encompassing 1508 patients (mean age 66.72 ± 13.74 years; 55.7% male), met the inclusion criteria. Baseline PWDur was longer in the NDAF (MD 6.36 ms, 95% CI: 0.69–12.03, p = 0.03, I 2 = 73%, GRADE: moderate). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness. PWDis remained non‐significant. Conclusion Prolonged baseline PWDur may serve as a non‐invasive marker of atrial conduction abnormalities and a predictor of AF in CS survivors. Larger prospective studies are needed to validate its role in risk stratification and secondary stroke prevention.
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Balweel et al. (2025) conducted a meta-analysis in Cryptogenic stroke (n=1,508). Subsequent newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (NDAF) vs. Continued sinus rhythm (no AF) was evaluated on Mean difference in baseline P-wave duration (PWDur) (MD 6.36 ms, 95% CI 0.69-12.03, p=0.03). Cryptogenic stroke survivors who subsequently developed newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation had a significantly longer baseline P-wave duration compared to those who remained in sinus rhythm (MD 6.36 ms).
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