No Shelter Here: Rebel Sanctuaries and International Conflict

Rebel groups often operate across national boundaries, increasing tensions between states and the odds of international conflict. Weak states are incapable of evicting rebels and are unwillingly drawn into international conflicts. Rival states support transnational rebels in order to undermine their opponents and substitute direct hostilities with action through proxies. These claims are tested through a quantitative analysis of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) since 1945. Results support the claim that rebel sanctuaries across borders increase the probability of an international conflict. Other forms of assistance to rebel groups are also associated with increased hostilities.