Policy‐Makers' Images of International Conflict

Growing evidence indicates that foreign policy is not simply the product of purely rational, Realpolitik calculations. In making key decisions, national leaders often rely on highly simplified images of the international scene. Focusing on the long‐standing debate over American‐Soviet relations, I distinguish two basic images that have dominated much of this debate: the deterrence and conflict spiral images. What counts as a “rational” policy toward the Soviet Union depends critically on which image one believes best describes American‐Soviet relations. I argue that although the psychological research literature does not tell us who is right in this controversy, the literature does identify a variety of factors (including cognitive, social and personality variables) that are threats to the validity of images underlying policy decisions. I discuss these potential sources of error and bias as well as possible approaches to minimizing their impact on the policy‐making process.