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Abstract The 2022 midterm elections tested both American democracy's resilience and the referendum theory of midterm elections. Democracy met the test better than the theory. For several reasons, Democrats lost far fewer House seats than referendum models predicted given Biden's low approval ratings, inflation, and an unhappy electorate. Trump's meddling in nomination politics on behalf of his big lie and the Court's Dobbs decision put democracy and abortion on the agenda, mobilizing Democrats and redefining what was at stake in the election. The referendum was also blunted by hardened political attitudes that minimized partisan defections and by independents who voted for Democrats despite negative opinions of Biden. Overall voting patterns showed record levels of continuity and cohesion in 2022, reiterating the stark political divisions that have emerged over the past decade.
Gary C. Jacobson (Sun,) studied this question.