Modeling Updating of Perceived Detection Risk: The Role of Personal Experience, Peers, Deterrence Policies, and Impulsivity

We investigate how changes in deviant personal experiences, vicarious information, perceptions of deterrence policies, and impulsivity as a conditioning factor affect the perceived detection risk (PDR). We examine this by using the example of plagiarism by German university students using panel data (N = 1,684). Results show, for example, that gaining experience with plagiarism lowered the PDRs, while detection increased the PDRs. Vicarious information indicating low detection risks lowered the PDR of non-plagiarists only. An increase in the estimated use of computer-assisted plagiarism-checks, affected predominantly the PDR of plagiarists. Moreover, more impulsive plagiarists gave less weight to announcements of the use of plagiarism checks.