Key points are not available for this paper at this time.
Data from Chinas 1982 one-in-a-thousand fertility survey are used to construct contour maps (called Lexis maps) of various surfaces of Chinese marriage and fertility. They offer a panoramic view of the interaction of age period and cohort variations. The maps clearly display long-term trends of the past 3 decades: age of 1st marriage has shifted upward by about 4 years and fertility has dramatically declined especially before age 20 and after age 30. The maps also reveal the substantial impact of disruptions associated with the Great Leap Forward the Cultural Revolution and the mobilization of urban school graduates for work in rural and mountaineous areas as well as the increase in marriage and fertility associated with the new Marriage Law announced in 1980. Because the maps display age and time simultaneously the effect of long-term trends and short-term disturbances on the age-composition of marriage and fertility can be seen. Marriage continues to occur largely within a 5-year period of age although this period has shifted from 15-19 to 20-24; childbearing has been drastically concentrated in the ages from 21-28. Amidst the turbulent change 2 striking regularities persist. Marriage although delayed remains virtually universal by age 35 and fertility among married women younger than 26 remains as high as it has been over the last 30-40 years. Between ages 19-26 about 1/3 of married women bear a child a year. One important implication of the patterns over the last 3 decades is that China will be burdened with a jagged age structure perhaps for a century or more.
Zeng et al. (Sun,) studied this question.