Geospatial Analysis of Flood Hazard Using GIS-Based Hydrologic–Hydraulic Modeling: A Case of the Cagayan River Basin, Philippines

Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards, causing widespread damage to lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure, particularly in vulnerable river basins. The Cagayan River Basin (CRB), the largest and most flood-prone basin in the Philippines, remains a significant challenge for disaster risk management. This study developed an event-based hydrologic–hydraulic modeling framework by coupling HEC-HMS rainfall–runoff simulations with HEC-RAS 2D unsteady flow routing to produce validated flood hazard maps. Inputs included rainfall from 41 gauge stations and observed inflows from the Magat Dam, processed in HEC-DSS. Validation utilized 137 surveyed flood marks collected from post-flood surveys, community reports, government archives, and household RTK measurements, with a concentration in Tuguegarao City. The coupled model reproduced key hydrograph peaks with moderate accuracy (R2 = 0.56, Bias = +0.32 m, RMSE = 1.61 m, MAE = 1.43 m), although NSE (−2.30) reflected the limits of daily rainfall inputs. Simulated hazard maps identified 767.97 km2 of inundated area (approximately 2.77% of CRB), concentrated along the floodplain and at the Magat confluence. Unlike previous scenario-based or localized efforts, this study delivers the first basin-wide, event-validated flood hazard maps for the CRB using integrated depth and depth–velocity criteria. The resulting hazard layers provide a scientific basis for strengthening evacuation planning, guiding land-use and infrastructure decisions, and supporting long-term resilience strategies in one of the Philippines’ most flood-prone rivers.