Mapping Student Networks and Degree Completion: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data

Abstract The role of social connections in supporting student retention in higher education is well-documented. Strong networks are associated with better academic outcomes and reduced dropout rates, but the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted traditional patterns of social interaction. This study examines the relationship between social networks and student retention, comparing cohorts from before the pandemic and during the pandemic in higher education. Drawing on Tinto’s theory of academic and social integration, as well as research on the role of social networks in fostering belonging and academic success, we analyze data from two cohorts of undergraduate university students: one beginning their studies in 2017 and the other in 2020 during COVID-19 restrictions. Using social network research, survey data, and student management system data collected over the three years of undergraduate studies, we identify significant differences in the size and strength of social networks across cohorts. While the 2020 cohort reported fewer connections at the beginning of the study, retention rates remained comparable. Findings show that early social ties strongly predict on-time study completion for both cohorts. In the 2017 cohort, the expected probability of students finishing their studies increased by around 10 percentage points for students with 1–3 connections compared to students with no prior connections, and by around 22 percentage points for students with 4 or more connections. In the 2020 cohort, the predicted probability of students finishing their studies increased by around 16 percentage points for students with one or more connections, compared to students with no prior connections (the difference between 1 and 3 connections and 4 or more was not significant). These insights highlight the need for higher education institutions to prioritize social and academic integration, especially during times of crisis, to ensure students can succeed despite challenging circumstances.