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A method is described for evaluating the potential effectiveness of a direct water heater load control program. Developed through a comprehensive load research program coupled with engineering insights into the energy use of residential hot water systems, this method results in an algorithm that has been utilized to evaluate the potential for load control on three electric utility systems in the western US. Variables to be monitored through the load research are presented and a procedure that will allow the system planner to determine if such a program will be cost-effective and successful compared to a program developed through a more traditional pilot or demonstration approach is developed. It is shown how the same methodology can be used for determining a procedure for the dispatcher to properly initiate and terminate a load control program without hot water recovery problems.>
Gustafson et al. (1993) studied this question.