Projections of ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model

Abstract. Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans, potentially having serious consequences for the marine ecosystems. Projections of ocean acidification are primarily determined from prescribed emission pathways within large scale earth system models. Rather than running the cumbersome earth system models, we can use a reduced-form model to quickly emulate the CMIP5 models for projection studies under arbitrary emission pathways and for uncertainty analyses of the marine carbonate system. In this study we highlight the capability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries. Hector is run under historical emissions and a high emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), comparing its output to observations and CMIP5 models that contain ocean biogeochemical cycles. Ocean acidification changes are already taking place, with significant changes projected to occur over the next 300 years. We project a low latitude (> 55°) surface ocean pH decrease from preindustrial conditions by 0.4 units to 7.77 at 2100, and an additional 0.27 units to 7.50 at 2300. Aragonite saturations decrease by 1.85 units to 2.21 at 2100 and an additional 0.80 units to 1.42 at 2300. Under a high emissions scenario, for every 1 °C of future warming we find a 0.107 unit pH decrease and a 0.438 unit decrease in aragonite saturations. Hector reproduces the global historical trends, and future projections with equivalent rates of change over time compared to observations and CMIP5 models. Hector is a robust tool that can be used for quick ocean acidification projections, accurately emulating large scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.