Development of a nomogram that predicts the risk for coronary atherosclerotic heart disease

Figures

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  Figure 1. Estimated odds ratios determined in a logistic regression model (Backwald: Wald). Abbreviations: OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval.

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  Figure 2. Nomogram for predicting CHD risk. The value of each variable was scored on a point scale from 0 to 100, after which the scores for each variable were added together. That sum is located on the total points axis, which enables us to predict the probability of CHD risk. For age categories, 1= 10 to 20, 2 = 21 to 30, 3 = 31 to 40, 4 = 41 to 50, 5 = 51 to 60, 6 = 61 to 70, 7 = 71 to 80, 8 = 81 to 90, 9 = 91 to 100, 10 = 101 to 110 year. For other variables, 0 = no and 1 = yes.

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  Figure 3. Association between the total points of the nomogram and CHD. Abbreviations: OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval.

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  Figure 4. Evaluation of the nomogram model. (A) Receiver operating characteristic curve for the nomogram generated using bootstrap resampling (500 times). (B) Nomogram calibration plot. When the solid line (performance nomogram) was closer to the dotted line (ideal model), the prediction accuracy of the nomogram was better. (C) Decision curve analysis for the prediction model. The red solid line is from the prediction model, the gray line is for all patients with CHD, and the solid horizontal line indicates no patients have CHD. The graph depicts the expected net benefit per patient relative to the nomogram prediction of CHD risk. The net benefit increases as the model curve is extended.

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  Figure 5. Hypothesized association between CHD and potential predictors in our study.