Predicting survival after stroke: a three-year follow-up.

We examined characteristics associated with a high risk of mortality within 3 years after a stroke. Analyses are based on data from a population-based register of stroke events that occurred in Auckland (total population 829,545), New Zealand during a 1-year period in 1981-1982 and a 3-year follow-up study of all survivors (97% complete). Statistical techniques that allow for the simultaneous evaluation of multiple factors indicated that retention of consciousness, decreasing age, and place of residence at the onset of the stroke were the strongest predictors of survival over 3 years. The survival rate for those living at home at the onset of the stroke who did not lose consciousness was 58% compared with 5% for people in institutional care who lost consciousness. Marital status, history of stroke, and ethnic group also predicted survival. Most of the important prognostic factors we identified in our study cannot be modified, testifying to the importance of the prevention of stroke in the first place.