Electoral Cycles and Budgetary Growth in Veterans' Benefit Programs

While many studies have generated negative findings regarding the general existence of electoral cycles in economic phenomena, we have found an apparently robust electoral cycle in veterans' benefits. This pattern was found between 1961 and 1978, but has disappeared since then. We use this case to investigate the possibility that electoral cycles might contribute to the growth of government spending. Using two different methods of inference, we find no strong basis to conclude that such cycles cause increasing public sector growth.