Neorealism and Russia’s Ukraine policy, 1991-present

What lies behind Russia’s Ukraine policy? This article places Russia’s current actions in Ukraine into a broader temporal and theoretical perspective. Drawing on the work of John Mearsheimer, I adjust neorealist theory to explain why and how major powers build regional spheres of influence. Briefly, the theory says that major powers use soft-power and hard-power tools to constrain the foreign-policy autonomy of neighbouring states. How major powers choose between these tools depends on the level of external pressure. My analysis shows that this argument goes a long way to explain the overall pattern and development of Russia’s Ukraine policy over the last 25 years.