Climate-driven invasion of Pomacea canaliculata and Angiostrongylus cantonensis transmission risk: Ecological niche modeling forecasts and public-health governance recommendations

Global climate change is rapidly reshaping species distribution patterns worldwide. Pomacea canaliculata (golden apple snail), one of the world's 100 worst invasive alien species, has experienced accelerated range expansion driven by climate change and anthropogenic activities. Owing to its high phenotypic plasticity, broad environmental tolerance, and high fecundity, this species causes severe agricultural damage and biodiversity loss. Importantly, P. canaliculata is a highly competent intermediate host of the rat lungworm Angiostrongylus cantonensis , the causative agent of human eosinophilic meningitis, posing a growing public health threat. This review synthesizes the biological traits, invasion mechanisms, and ecological impacts of P. canaliculata , together with the transmission cycle and epidemiology of A. cantonensis . Using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model under two future climate scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5), we projected the spatiotemporal dynamics of suitable habitat for P. canaliculata . Current distributions are primarily driven by hydrothermal factors, with annual precipitation (BIO12) and maximum temperature of the warmest month (BIO5) exerting dominant influences, resulting in high suitability across tropical and subtropical regions. Under future warming, habitat suitability is projected to decline in low-latitude regions while expanding poleward, with increased fragmentation under SSP5–8.5. High-stability resilience hotspots, including the lower Yangtze River Basin and the Mississippi River Basin, are identified as priority areas for management. Based on these projections, we propose a precision governance framework integrating niche-based risk stratification, low-toxicity biocontrol, habitat management, cross-border surveillance, and public education to support climate-adaptive prevention of invasive species and parasite transmission. • Future warming is projected to shift the global distribution of Pomacea canaliculata toward higher latitudes. • Low-latitude habitats are expected to lose suitability, whereas high-latitude regions gain new suitable areas. • Regional projections indicate stronger tropical habitat loss than previously reported. • Integrating climate information into surveillance frameworks improves early detection and control of snail-mediated disease risks. • Climate-resilient hotspots are identified to support targeted management and public health interventions.